The most significant impact of the State budget on school facilities is the expansion of the Transitional Kindergarten (TK) Program to all 4-year-olds.
The phasing of the expansion of the TK Program is as follows:
Year TK Months
21/22 3 (no change)
22/23 5 (adds 2)
23/24 7 (adds 2)
24/25 9 (adds 2)
25/26 12 (adds 3)
The program is fully implemented in 2025/26.
This school year (21/22) is a planning year and, hopefully, a construction year to be ready for the incoming students beginning in 2022/23 through 2025/26.
SchoolWorks can assist with your planning efforts by projecting the number of students projected each year as the TK Program expands to its full size. Although there are a few simple methods to determine the possible impacts, a more accurate analysis would be beneficial to best prepare for this change.
The two simple options for determining the anticipated number of TK students at full implementation would be either of the following:
Multiply the current number of TK students by 4
Multiply the current number of K students by 80%
These two calculations are based on the expansion of the Program from 3 to 12 months, which is a multiplier of 4. The other calculation assumes the TK class will be around 80% of the size of a typical grade due to the anticipated interest in the program and the participation rates we have seen in the past for the TK program.
The real challenge with using this simple method is the unknown impacts of birth rates in California. The number of births in our State in 2015 which generated the kindergarten class last year was 492,592 and the projected births this year (2021) which will generate the TK class for 2025/26 is projected to be only 399,100 which is a drop of 19%. The drop in births can reduce the impact on your TK and K classrooms needs and save the district millions in preparing for the Program expansion.
Transitional Kindergarten for All
This chart shows the births that have occurred each year and the current grade that those students will be attending for the 2021/22 school year. The largest class this year in the State is 9th grade. This chart illustrates the decline anticipated in the TK and K classes over the next five years due to the low number of births from 2017 to 2021 that generate the kindergarten students from 2022 to 2026.